The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a low-pressure system forming in the northwest and west-central Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. This system is expected to strong and move in a west-northwest direction along the coasts of south Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh, leading to rainfall in northwest India until Saturday.
A weather stretching from southwest Uttar Pradesh to the Bay of Bengal could result in thunderstorms and isolated heavy rainfall in southern Uttar Pradesh today. In Uttarakhand, similar weather patterns are anticipated from Wednesday to Saturday.
As of Monday, monsoon rains in northwest India were slightly below average, with a 1% deficit since the season began on June 1st. However, the monsoon trough, which signifies active monsoon conditions, was positioned slightly south of its usual location on Tuesday.
Recent rains have helped reduce the season’s rainfall deficit to 10%. Over the next five days, states such as Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and several northeastern states are likely to receive significant rainfall.
Various regions can expect light to moderate rainfall and thunderstorms, including Odisha through Friday, Jharkhand between Wednesday and Friday, and Gangetic West Bengal until Thursday. Isolated areas in Odisha may experience extremely heavy rainfall today and on Wednesday and Thursday.
East and Northeast India have received 966.7 mm of rainfall between June 1st and September 11th, which is 19% less than the normal seasonal average. Meanwhile, a shifting cyclonic circulation is anticipated to bring heavy rain to several central Indian states until Saturday.
Rainfall in central India and the South Peninsula has been 9% below average since June 1st. Today, there may be very heavy rainfall in north coastal Andhra Pradesh, while Kerala and the ghat areas of Tamil Nadu are also expected to receive rain.
The monsoon has seen a comeback in the last month, influenced by weather systems from the South China Sea and West Pacific. Some global and U.S. models suggest that the monsoon might remain strong until the end of September, potentially delaying its rainfall. Various eastern regions, including Uttar Pradesh, parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Mumbai, and Konkan, may experience heavy rainfall following an wet period over the past ten days.